(This is a work in progress, changing daily, as we move along from news story to news story.)
Not yet two months into the Trump Administration, new news is coming fast and furious, and a lot of people are already beginning to worry that Trump is being damaged by much of it.
Actually, I think not, at least not yet, but it isn’t difficult to keep score if you employ only a few simple rules.
(I think you can do this at home, with a Word Document, although chalkboard and eraser can actually be more fun, inasmuch as you can work off a lot of nervous energy.)
So far, I see no evidence of Donald Trump losing ground with the voters. In fact I see him gaining points, up from 47% (his election tally) to 53%-55% in popularity. And there are at least 20% more of the Democrat voters to win, if he will only keep his eye on the prize. Forget approval polls that suggest he’s lost ground. They just can’t make a logical mathematical case that a man who is keeping every promise he made is losing ground to the people who voted for him on account of those promises
Trump’s path is clear…
If he keeps his promises, his popular approval will grow, and there’s nothing short of an armed coup or impeachment that can derail him.
(Hold that thought. This isn’t hyperbole.)
With this in mind, then, the First Law of Trump Math is that as long as Donald Trump keeps his word to his core base he will hold onto that core base no matter what. And that core base is enough to put him in the White House a second time. I see nothing yet in the current media campaigns to indicate where, or how, the Left and the forces of anti-MAGA might gain voters for their side.
So, do not confuse Trump voters with the uninformed, wishy-washy Republicans, undecideds or moderates who pay almost no attention to elections until Halloween. Trump’s are the most politically (and philosophically) literate aggregation of voters since de Toqueville first met them in Illinois in 1831. And they gain their savvy, as in the 1830s, without benefit of Media, but rather a love of hearth, home and country, common sense and a depth of skill at critical thinking (called connecting more than two-dots) denied two-thirds of the liberal arts departments in America’s universities.
And Trump voters are battle-hardened, having first elected a House of Representatives, only to watch that team roll over as quickly as a new Speaker was elected…then a Senate, only to see that fine crop of blue bloods worry more about keeping their business suits unruffled than keeping platitudinous promises they’d made (but likely never really intended to keep) since 2008. Third time is a charm, after six hard years of work, fortitude and perseverance, but also totally out of character with what pollsters believed common, middle class citizens to be, even now, they rallied around an unlikely nominee with the simple promise of making America great again.
This is not to say that Donald Trump can’t misstep, or screw up, only not because the Media, the Democrats, or John McCain say it.
So, don’t believe any negative poll numbers UNLESS there has been an intervening event, of Trump’s making, and for which his voters know firsthand.
This is the essential handshake between Donald Trump and the people.
Therefore, common sense tells us that as long as the Democrats and Media continue to play to their own core base, nothing fundamentally will change. Making a lie sound believable to an idiot changes nothing. This cannot derail the enthusiasm for Donald Trump. Our voters are not kids who grow bored easily. They are not spoiled or petulant.
So, if Vegas were giving odds, the trend would be upward – that Donald Trump could easily “steal” at least 10%, more likely 20% of the remaining Democrat voter base to the Trump side. (Pollsters are unwilling to go out and find how many he brought over in 2016, except to say they were “white, mostly men, and angry.”)
Even if Mr Trump is unable to get the GOP Congress to go along with his promises, in the short turn it will be this GOP Congress who will pay a price. (More on that at another time, as an Obamacare repeal vote looms.)